ROANOKE, Va. – 11:30 p.m. Monday Update:
This Weather Authority Alert Day has been cleared.
9 p.m. Monday update:
7 p.m. Monday evening update:
Monday Evening Update
Severe storms are now just outside our viewing area and moving east around 50MPH. A cel near Charleston, WV has a history of producing baseball-sized hail, damaging winds, and was previously tornado-warned. We are keeping a close eye on this particular storm as it moves closer to our viewing area.
A severe thunderstorm watch has also been issued for portions of our viewing area until 11PM this evening.
A level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk is in place for portions of the Highlands. A level 1 and 2 out of 5 persists for the rest of Southwest and Central Virginia. We go over the risks and analyze futurecast in this article.
By far, the biggest risk associated with today/tonight’s potential for severe weather is the wind. Straight line winds could be damaging and destructive at times with areas in the Highlands having the greatest risk.
The hail risk is also elevated. Any storms that have the tag ‘Severe Thunderstorm Warning’ will feature the chance for hail, which could be 1 inch in diameter or greater.
While the tornado risk is the lowest threat for the day/night, it is not entirely zero. There will be some shear, or rotation, within some storms that will have to be monitored.
7:00pm is when we are expecting the arrival of isolated to scattered storms moving into the Highlands. The deeper the color red/pink, the more intense the updraft, which leads to a heavier rain, and greater potential for hail.
Storms continue to ride from west to east as we head into the 9:00pm hour. Gusty winds, and heavy rain will continue. By this time, storms are trying to drape south along the I-81 corridor.
The trend continues through the 11:00pm hour, but energy becomes more scarce. Any storms still about will start to drop in intensity.
Tonight at 1:00am is when the action really starts to die down. A few isolated storms may continue to move across the region, but most showers become light to moderate in nature.
With the chance for numerous heavy downpours to pass over the same area, there is the risk of flash flooding for localities in the Highlands. This threat is primarily for West Virginia counties, but could spill into Highland, Bath, Alleghany, and Rockbridge counties if rain becomes persistent enough.
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