BAKU – With time running down, negotiators at the United Nations annual climate talks on Wednesday remained mired in the maze of a trillion-dollar money problem, turning to host Azerbaijan to lead the way to daylight with a promised map to be released in the dark of night.
Vulnerable nations are seeking $1.3 trillion to deal with damage from climate change and to adapt to that change, including building out their own clean-energy systems. Experts agree that at least $1 trillion is called for, but both figures are far more than the developed world has so far offered.
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Negotiators are fighting over three big parts of the issue: How big the numbers are, how much is grants or loans, and who contributes.
After 10 days of talks, the host presidency of the talks, called COP29, promised a draft proposal around midnight local time, which they acknowledged will be far from final and have many decisions still to be made. But it's something, a clear step forward, said lead negotiator Yelchin Rafiyev.
Pressure on the presidency
German special climate envoy Jennifer Morgan late Wednesday afternoon put the onus on the COP29 presidency.
“Much is really now in the presidency’s hands and the options that they will put in front of us, the text that will come out,” Morgan said. “I think the options can help shift us into the fast lane towards a green and prosperous future or mire us in a fight about lowest common denominators.”
And the key to a solution is one word, Morgan said: Trust.
“The most critical currency right now is trust — trust in the presidency and and trust between and amongst parties,” Morgan said. “And what this effectively means is a lot of shuttle diplomacy, numerous huddles between negotiating groups.”
Negotiators relay some progress, but talks go in ‘circles’
At a session where ministers relayed their progress Wednesday, Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen — one of the ministers leading talks on the money goal — said that he's heard different proposals on how much cash should be in the pot. As well as the $1.3 trillion proposed by developing countries, nations proposed figures of $900 billion, $600 billion and $440 billion, he said.
Diego Pacheco Balanza, the chair of the Like-Minded Developing Countries negotiating bloc, said the group was also hearing a figure of $200 billion in negotiating corridors. That's not enough, he said. “Developed countries whose legal obligations it is to provide finance continue to shift their responsibility to developing countries,” Pacheco Balanza said.
When asked for his response to the $200 billion suggestion, Adonia Ayebare, chair of the G77 plus China negotiating group asked, “Is it a joke?” Speaking to a room of reporters, he added that negotiations need a headline figure of $1.3 trillion. “I used to be a member of the press, I know the headline is important,” he said.
But European climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra said "it is important to determine the elements first, so that you can have an informed conversation about what an ambitious and also realistic number could be.”
Elsewhere, there appeared to be some positivity on working through other issues at the talks.
South Africa's climate minister Dion George — one of two ministers leading talks on how to cut planet-warming fossil fuels — said that “all parties confirmed their commitment to delivering on the Dubai consensus reached last year” when countries pledged to transition away from fossil fuels.
Morgan said 150 nations are working “to come overcome the vocal but isolated minority trying to block progress on” reducing heat-trapping emissions and weaning the world from fossil fuels.
And New Zealand's climate minister Simon Watts was also “very encouraged” by movement on so-called Article 6, a proposal to slash emissions through, among other things, a system of carbon credits that allow nations to pollute if they offset emissions elsewhere.
But a lot was still left to work out.
Alden Meyer of the European think tank E3G summed up the state of negotiations on Wednesday by saying the word of the day at the talks is “circle… as in going around in circles."
Delegates feel both frustration and hope
Juan Pablo Hoffmaister of the Environmental Defense Fund said “the frustration is palpable” as time starts to run out.
Hoffmaister, who’s a former negotiator for developing countries, said that while potential climate finance goals are finally out, it’s still unclear how they will be delivered — loans, grants or other means. “We need to fix this over the next 72 hours,” he said.
Italy’s special envoy for climate change, Francesco Corvaro, said negotiations feel like they are moving in the right direction, but that it’s likely going to take extra time to reach a deal. “We can’t fail,” he said. But he stressed that Europe doesn’t have the capacity to cover the cost of climate finance alone.
Ali Mohamed, chair of the African Group of Negotiators said he hopes “that our partners will come forward with a justifiable number that will meet the needs and the the scale of the growing problems of climate change.”
Mohamed said there is a clear obligation for developed countries to support poorer countries but “up to now, we don’t seem to have a figure,” he said expressing frustration at the slow progress.
Rizwana Hasan, adviser to the Bangladesh government on environment and climate change, also slammed developed countries in a press conference, saying “the global north and the major emitting countries still lack the feeling of urgency and true commitment” on curbing climate change.
But, she said, there is reason to keep trust in process. “You can’t give up hope," she said. "Giving up hope makes no sense.”
UN chief says success is in the hands of rich nations
Meanwhile, half the world away in Rio, Brazil, where the Group of 20 summit wrapped up on Tuesday, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the group of the world’s largest economies that “the success of COP29 is largely in your hands.”
“That goal, the financial goal, in its different layers, must meet the needs of developing countries, beginning with a significant increase in concessional public funds,” he said.
And the president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, said developed nations should consider moving their 2050 emission goals forward to 2040 or 2045.
“The G20 is responsible for 80% of greenhouse effect emissions,” he said. “Even if we are not walking the same speed, we can all take one more step.”
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