ROANOKE, Va. – Monday Morning Update:
This morning, we have not seen an update to the SPC map below. The highest risk levels are still in the Lynchburg and Southside Zones. Today is a case of not if, but when those weather alerts are issued, please be in a place where you can hear those alerts.
Below is the SPC outlook for damaging wind gusts, with the highest risk zone shown in the deeper purple. Wind damage and large hail, along with a spin-up tornado, are all on the table for this afternoon’s event.
We have a few new alerts issued this morning. Now, a severe thunderstorm watch is in place for parts of the NRV and Highlands Zones until 11 AM. These are the areas where we could see the first strong storms this morning and into the early afternoon.
The highest threats this afternoon remain high winds and hail, and we cannot rule out a tornado at this time. Isolated flooding is a concern as well.
Stay weather-aware today and make sure you have the 10 Weather App downloaded, which will send push alerts directly to your phone as the severe alerts are issued this afternoon.
Sunday Evening Update:
Wind alerts have been issued ahead of tomorrow’s cold front and run until Tuesday at 2:00 AM. Areas could see wind gusts be between 30-40 mph and sustained winds up to 20mph throughout a majority of the day with most of the major straight-line winds running along the front.
Wind gusts have the potential to get up to 55mph at times due to higher winds aloft behind forced down from the momentum of heavy rain. Even after the frontal passage, winds can be strong and will likely peak again in the evening hours.
Moderate to heavy rain is expected with this storm, allowing for some areas to see over an inch of rain.
Snow is also expected behind the cold front, but zero to trace amounts are expected with the Blue Ridge having the highest likelihood off seeing accumulation.
Sunday Morning Update:
As the low pressure system makes its way across the United States, we are seeing a greater chance of experiencing severe weather tomorrow. Portions of central and eastern Virginia are now covered under a moderate risk, or a 4/5 risk.
Though the odds decrease towards the west, there is still a large likelihood there will be a severe impact.
Much like the 2 day outlook, most of the risk lies towards the central and eastern portions of Virginia in terms of tornado chances.
Parts of Southside and Lynchburg are included in a 15% chance of seeing a tornado. While this number seems low, the risk is still very large and not one to ignore.
A lot of damaging winds will lie in front of the cold front which will come earlier in the day tomorrow. That said, the risks of wind, hail, and tornadoes will last through the early afternoon.
Due to the extreme cold air behind this front, we are still expecting to snow to follow this system; but due to the ground temperature we are not expecting to see much if any accumulation. Mountain valleys could see up to an inch of accumulation, mountain tops could see more, and the rest will get trace to none.
Winds tomorrow will ramp up right off the bat tomorrow morning. All day these winds and wind gusts will be strong, and will likely be stronger ahead of the front.
Saturday Evening Update:
The Storm Prediction Center continues to put us in slight risk (level 2) and enhanced risk (level 3) for severe weather on Monday. The difference between yesterday and today is that the enhanced risk has shifted a bit farther west, putting more of the viewing area in it.
All threats remain on the table: wind, hail, and even a couple of tornadoes. It would not be shocking to see a Tornado Watch issued for at least part of the area on Monday. The threat of severe weather early next week will extend from Pennsylvania all the way south into Georgia and Florida.
Sunday will start out dry, but pop-up showers will form later in the day (like from the mid-afternoon on). Rain will then fill in on Sunday night.
Monday is the day to watch. A line of strong-to-severe storms will enter the picture later in the morning, exiting close to dinner time. However, behind those storms, temperatures will plummet (highs will be in the 60s and 70s on Monday, falling into the 20s for lows Monday night), allowing for some snow showers in the mountains from late afternoon into the evening.
So, how much rain is headed our way with our next potent weather system? Most of us will see 0.50″-1″ of rain before all is said and done, with a few areas seeing less and a few areas seeing more.
Saturday Morning Update:
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of our region to an enhanced risk for a large chunk of our region, with others being in a slight risk all while still being 3 days out.
What this means is there is a strong likelihood of seeing severe conditions across the Commonwealth including damaging winds, hail, and the possibility of tornadoes.
As of now, this powerful cold front will push through the region in the late morning/early afternoon and produce loads of rain and strong winds. Later in the day, temperatures will drop substantially and begin to produce a rain/snow mix.
Timing for this is still a bit weary, but more models are starting to come into agreeance. As always, stay tuned with your Local Weather Authority for updates on this system, as more information is soon to come.
Friday Night:
With the warmer temperatures as of recent, it was only a matter of time before the thunderstorm risk arrived. Monday brings us the best chance of any severe weather so far.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an uncommon Day 4 risk for severe weather for our area. With a strong cold front expected to pass, we very well could see severe weather. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are all within the realm of possibilities.
The greatest chance of severe weather appears to be towards the Piedmont part of the state. Areas such as Appomattox, South Boston, and Danville run the greatest risk for severe thunderstorm development.
We don’t see Day 4 risks often, the last time our viewing area was under any kind of Day 4 risk was June 16 of last year, when nearly the entire commonwealth was under a 15% risk. For the last 30% Day 4 risk, you have to go all the way back to June 2, 2016.
The timing of the front will be the top story, as that has the greatest influence on the severe weather we see. Right now, the mid to late afternoon has the greatest chance for any severe weather.
As always, we’ll continue to keep you updated as this risk develops.