Sunday Evening Update
A few strong storms have passed through the region, some of which had winds up to 60 mph.
Power outages are increasing across the region, and more are likely to come.
Though a few more storms are expected over the next few hours, most of the stronger ones have already passed. As the sun sets, the severe threat will be very minimal.
These storms are slowly becoming less prominent because our dewpoints are dropping. When this occurs, storm production becomes is limited.
We will start to dry up overnight into Monday, which is looking very dry and seasonable.
Sunday Morning Update
Today is a Weather Authority Alert Day as a line of strong to severe storms is expected to move through the region this afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall, with storms possible across much of the region. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, the tornado threat remains low at this time.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of our region to a level 2 out of 5, or a Slight Risk, for severe storms today. This means scattered severe storms are possible across our area, and confidence is increasing that some communities could experience some impactful weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has also placed our region in a 15% risk area for damaging winds today, with the higher 30% risk remaining just to our east. This means scattered severe storms this afternoon could be capable of producing wind gusts strong enough to down trees and powerlines, localized power outages could be possible.
Futurecast shows the main line of storms arriving around 5:00 PM, first impacting the New River Valley and Highlands before progressing east throughout the evening. Even after that initial round moves through, another band of heavy precip is expected to move through the region at around 8:00 PM until around 12:00 AM, which could lead to additional downpours and increased flooding concerns.
We’ll be monitoring conditions very closely throughout the day and will keep you updated every step of the way.
Saturday Evening Update
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now included a majority of our region in the slight or 2/5 risk for tomorrow, enhancing the chances of more areas seeing severe activity.
Tomorrow is becoming an eerily similar set up to that of yesterday’s. A cold front will make its way through the region in the late afternoon hours, sparking isolated storms across the region.
As for the threats, damaging wind gusts will once again be the main concern. Some of these systems will produce heavy rainfall, so localized flooding is also in the realm of possibilities.
The tornado risk is a tad bit higher than what we saw yesterday. With coastal and portions of central Virginia being in the 2% tornado risk from the SPC, there is a low likelihood, but certainly not zero.
The risk of seeing damaging winds has also increased as the clock ticks toward tomorrow. For most of us, there is a 15% chance of seeing winds 58 mph or higher, with the greater odds being off to the east.
Considering how quickly the SPC has been increasing these risks, it is possible to see an uptick in the severity. Stay tuned for updates!
Saturday Morning
A Weather Authority Alert Day has been issued for Sunday, June 14, due to the risk of strong to severe storms. This will be a similar setup to this past Thursday and Friday.
Our region is now under a Slight and Marginal Risk. The Slight Risk Zone includes Lynchburg and Southside, with the remainder of our viewing area under the Marginal Risk.
There are a few different threats that we are keeping a close eye on. The main threats with this line will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall that could lead to isolated flash flooding. The greatest risk in our viewing area for damaging wind gusts is highlighted in the yellow swath below at the 15% risk. The remainder in the tan color is as a lower risk level.
The setup for this storm is very interesting, as the highest risk zone for the entirety of this setup looks to be the I-95 corridor and points east. However, with the amount of fuel in the atmosphere both Saturday and Sunday, we could see this change. Your Weather Authority will be watching this closely.
The risk of a quick spin-up tornado can not be ruled out in this system in areas highlighted in green, or for portions of the Lynchburg and Southside Zones. This is mainly for that I-95 corridor and east, but again this could change within the next 24 hours given the right amount of shear and the nature of the storm motion.
Futurecast shows these storms kicking off around peak daytime heating between 1-3 PM. These pop up storms will have the fuel needed to bring hail, damaging wind gusts and the very low but non-zero chance for a isolated tornado.
Around 3-6 PM storms will move into the Lynchburg, Southside and Roanoke Valley and wrap up around 10-12 AM.
Be sure to stay weather aware today and download the Weather Authority Mobile App to have alerts sent directly to your phone when severe weather alerts are issued.