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A look into Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial election

Is it time for Virginia’s first female governor?

Photo of Winsome Earle-Sears at an inaugural celebration in Richmond (AP Photo/Steve Helber) and Abigail Spanberger at a campaign rally in Virginia Beach (AP Photo/Bryan Woolston). (Copyright 2025 by Associated Press - All rights reserved)

With the inauguration of President Trump set to be held on Monday, we Virginians aren’t too far out from our 2025 gubernatorial race; in fact, primaries are set to be held this June. So, where is the race currently at?

Currently, only two people have declared their candidacy in the race. On the Democratic side, there is Abigail Spanberger, the former U.S. Representative for Virginia’s 7th District. This district covers a chunk of the Commonwealth, spanning from just north of Richmond City to just south of Fairfax, although it was drastically redistricted while she was in office. She is also a former CIA operations officer. She announced her candidacy over a year ago now, and for a while, was the only person in the race.

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The former mayor of Richmond, Levar Stoney, announced his candidacy in December of 2023, but withdrew only a few months after his announcement, and stated he would run for lieutenant governor instead.

It has been speculated that U.S. Representative for Virginia’s 3rd District Bobby Scott may throw his hat in the ring as a Democratic candidate; he was even included in the recent January 2025 Mason-Dixon Virginia Poll, where he was pitted against Spanberger.

On the Republican side, there is Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor of Virginia. Sears also served in the Virginia House of Delegates for a short time, and on the Virginia Board of Education. In 2004, she ran for the House of Representatives in Virginia’s 3rd District, but lost to previously-mentioned incumbent Bobby Scott (who has been serving since 1993).

While there was initial speculation that Attorney General Jason Miyares would run, with some polls done by the University of Mary and Washington in September 2024 pitting him against Spanberger in a hypothetical matchup, he announced in November 2024 that he would instead seek another term as attorney general.

The previously mentioned Mason-Dixon Poll was released on January 10, and asked participants whether they would vote for Spanberger, Sears, or Bobby Scott. Polling showed Spanberger with a slight lead over Sears, with Spanberger at 47% and Sears at 44% statewide. When Sears was polled against Bobby Scott, Sears took the lead with 46%, and Scott held 44%. 9% of respondents were undecided when asked about Spanberger Vs. Sears, and 10% were undecided with Scott Vs. Sears.

A graph of a hypothetical matchup between Spanberger vs. Sears and Scott vs. Sears, in regards to the 2025 gubernatorial election in Virginia, according to a January 2025 Mason-Dixon conducted poll. Please note that at the time of this poll, Bobby Scott has not officially declared whether he would run for governor or not. (Copyright 2025 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

The most notable part of this poll, however, is when respondents were asked whether they recognized the names of the possible candidates. 28% didn’t recognize Winsome Earle-Sears, 24% didn’t recognize Spanberger, and 36% didn’t recognize Scott. While the poll shows Spanberger holding a slight lead when participants were asked if they would vote for her or Sears, a large portion of Virginians don’t know any of the names of possible gubernatorial candidates, and very few political ads have circulated at all.

A graph of the favorability and candidate recognizability of Spanberger, Sears, and Scott in regards to the 2025 gubernatorial election in Virginia, according to a January 2025 Mason-Dixon conducted poll. Please note that at the time of this poll, Bobby Scott has not officially declared whether he would run for governor or not. (Copyright 2025 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

While there are only two official candidates in the gubernatorial race, the race for lieutenant governor is hotly contested, particularly for the Democrats. State senators Ghazala Hashmi and Aaron Rouse, as well as former Richmond mayor Levar Stoney and Prince William County Schoolboard Chair Babur Lateef have all received numerous endorsements from various Virginia lawmakers.

With our current lieutenant governor currently in the middle of her gubernatorial campaign, no clear frontrunner has emerged from the Republican Party yet, and no endorsements have been given.

Currently, the Democratic Party holds the majority in Virginia’s House of Delegates by a single seat. However, much of the power of the House (and Senate, which Democrats also hold by only two seats) is cut short, considering Governor Youngkin and Lieutenant Governor Sears are Republicans. We will also be voting on new members of our local house districts in November, so there is the potential for the parties in power to completely flip from their current state.


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About the Author
Colton Game headshot

Colton joined the WSLS 10 team as a digital content producer in July 2024, soon after graduating cum laude from Virginia Tech with a B.S. in sociology and a minor in psychology.